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Jean Jacod, the former president of our Society, in his opening address
during the 7th World Congress in Probability and Statistics in Singapore,
discussed the question of whether scientific societies could still play their
old roles in the contemporary world. No such questions were present in the
corresponding speech of Jianqing Fan, the President of the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics. This fact was not caused by different temperaments of
the dignified speakers but it reflected the self-awareness of the two sister
institutions. While the IMS is rich, vigorous and rooted in his long tradition,
the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability seems to
experience a crisis of identity.
Victor Perez-Abreu, the successor of Jean Jacod, is continuing the process of
diagnosis, trying to take into account as many factors, as possible. Some
points, however, are obvious, without much consideration: while the “interior”
activities (publications, organization of conferences, finances) go more or less
smooth, the relations of the Bernoulli Society with the “exterior” (number of
members, the absence of the society in the public life) are much less
satisfactory. As a member of the society’s council, I would like to contribute a
bit to the discussion by proposing a strategy of developing national branches of
the society. The strategy, if chosen and, of course, successful, should bring a
substantial increase in the number of members, much better visibility of the
society in the contemporary world and improvement of the society’s finances.
There are some key observations in the background. First, when anyone can become
a member of the society, just by paying the membership fee, the important factor
of prestige disappears. Personally, I felt distinguished when invited to join
the Bernoulli Society in the middle of eighties of the past century. At that
time, among the members were the best Polish probabilists and statisticians.
What to do in order to restore the former exclusive status of the membership, at
least partially? Create two categories of members. You can be an ordinary
(“cosmopolitan”) member of the Bernoulli Society, according to the present
rules, but to be a member of the national branch you must be invited. All
members can share benefits of the membership, but the membership in the national
branch would receive a special flavour.
This idea has a continuation. The present membership fee, although not very high
according to standards of some countries, can be a substantial expense in
others. For instance, in Poland (and probably also in other “new members” of the
European Union, which is not the poorest region of the world), 70 Euros is
approximately 15% of a month’s net salary of a person at the postdoc position.
Perhaps this is the reason that among members of the Bernoulli Society there are
only 12 people from Poland, mostly professors. A solution would be to fix the
fee for membership in the national branch at the appropriate level. And then a
part of the membership fees (50%?) would be transferred to the center. To
prevent the society from financial loses, one could decide that the national
branch can be created provided the amount of money transferred to the center
would not be lower than the threshold income, defined as the average of sums
paid by members of given nationality during the three years prior to the year of
initiation of the national branch.
Three remarks are relevant here. This is not a very original idea. The Bernoulli
Society had been functioning this way during the seventies and eighties, at
least with respect to countries behind the “iron curtain”. Further, national
branches may apply for support in their countries. Funds obtained this way in
general cannot be transferred abroad, but can be used locally for many
activities, including realization of programs initiated by the center. Finally,
let us notice that the IMS is basically a national institution, admitting
members of foreign origin. Despite this there exists “IMS China”.
It is clear to make the above system really work at the beginning; one needs
some leading idea, unifying efforts of national branches in attractive
direction. I see two such ideas.
First goes the proposal due to Springer to establish an online, dynamic and open
access probability and statistics wiki in conjunction with statistical
societies. Quoting the flyer by Springer: “The wiki will provide an
authoritative reference for graduate students, researchers and practitioners.
Contributors will retain copyright to their articles and the site’s name will be
agreed upon by the partners.” It is very important to have competent texts in
English. But the national branches could provide a support for this initiative
in national languages, with clear impact on development of Probability and
Statistics in local education.
The other really exciting idea is to involve national branches in the 2013
Initiative. Let me recall that the year 2013 marks the 300th anniversary of
publication of Ars Conjectandi by Jacob Bernoulli and 250th anniversary
of publication of Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chance
by Thomas Bayes. On a similar occasion, 50 years ago, Lucien Le Cam and Jerzy
Neyman organized a scientific seminar in Berkeley and published its proceedings
under the title “Bernoulli 1713, Bayes 1763, Laplace 1813. Anniversary Volume”,
J. Neyman and L.M. Le Cam (Edts.) Springer, New York 1965. (Notice that
mentioning Laplace in this context was a kind of twisting facts, for his
memorable book “Théorie analytique des probabilities” was published in 1812 and
the second edition – in 1814). Nowadays, the work of the great pioneers is well
known and surely would not attract much public attention. On the contrary, the
last 50 years witnessed an extraordinary development of probabilistic and
statistical methods, in many areas of science, medicine, industry, economics,
finance and social life, and this fact is certainly not commonly known. So it is
not surprising that there is an idea of using the year 2013 as opportunity for
promoting the achievements and ubiquitous presence of Probability and Statistics
in the contemporary world.
This topic was discussed last year during the meeting of the council in
Singapore. Victor Perez-Abreu collected the results of discussion as well as
valuable contributions of some authorities asked for their opinions and
presented the summary during this year’s meeting of the council in Berlin. Now
it is time for planning the agenda. Surely several activities should be
performed at the central level. For example, the anniversary must find place in
programs of traditional meetings (special sessions, etc.) planned on 2012 and
2013. But again, this is in a sense “interior” action. My idea is to develop
national branches and charge them with organization of local (national)
celebrations of the year 2013. They can collect funds and organize events for
much wider audience than the executives of the Bernoulli Society.
The ideal solution would be if UNESCO calls the year 2013 “The International
Year of Probability and Statistics”, similarly as 2000 was “The Year of
Mathematics”, 2005 was “The Year of Physics” and 2009 is “The International Year
of Astronomy”. Let me quote here very instructive information found on the
corresponding web page: “The International Year of Astronomy 2009 (IYA 2009) is
a global celebration of astronomy and its contributions to society and culture
and marks the 400th anniversary of the first use of an astronomical telescope by
Galileo Galilei. The aim of the year is to stimulate worldwide interest,
especially among young people, in astronomy and science under the central theme
"The Universe, Yours to Discover". (…) The IYA 2009 activities are taking place
at global and regional levels, and especially at the national and local levels.
National Nodes in each country are running activities throughout the year, aimed
at establishing collaborations between professional and amateur astronomers,
science centers, educators and science communicators.” I would like to stress
that there are 146 National Nodes involved in the above project!
Is the Bernoulli Society in a position to appeal to UNESCO for such an action?
Alone – doubtful, if we reasonably estimate our international meaning. “The
International Year of Astronomy 2009” is a joint venture of UNESCO and the
International Astronomical Union. So should we first create a corresponding
international union, gathering everybody interested in statistics? Also, the
answer seems to be no. Within the statistical profile, there are many kinds of
activities, sometimes very different from probability and mathematical
statistics, as we understand it. For example, next year on October 20th (observe
20-10-2010!), the United Nations Statistics Division will organize the World
Statistics Day that will focus on three sub-themes: service to the nation and
the world, professionalism and integrity. We cannot identify objectives of our
society (“… the advancement of the sciences of probability and mathematical
statistics and of their applications to all those aspects of human endeavor
which are directed towards the increase of natural knowledge and the welfare of
mankind”) with the above rather narrow aims of a group of professionals.
Therefore, it is important that the President will start talks to other
organizations (International Statistical Institute, Institute of Mathematical
Statistics) about joint initiatives preserving the essence of our thinking: “The
Sciences of Probability and Statistics and their Applications”.
And what if we do not succeed with naming the year 2013 “The International Year
of Probability and Statistics”? Given a created network of national branches, we
can do much more by ourselves!
Adam Jakubowski, Torun